Early warning systems against deforestation in Peru
How the Basel Institute’s Subnational Public Finance Management programme (Programa GFP Subnacional) is helping regional governments in Peru use satellite data and early warning systems to monitor Amazonian forest. Staff training, historical baselines and open-source tools are helping authorities target patrols where deforestation pressure is greatest.
Impact highlights
- 2.8 million hectares across nine Regional Conservation Areas: The programme is supporting monitoring and conservation management across nine Regional Conservation Areas in Cusco, Loreto and San Martín – around 75 percent of the total area under regional conservation management in Peru.
- Nine validated deforestation baselines for better decisions: For the first time, participating Regional Conservation Areas have standardised evidence showing where forest loss occurred, how much was lost and what caused it.
- Stronger local technical capacity: Regional teams have been trained in geographic information systems, remote sensing and satellite-image analysis, reducing reliance on external specialists.
- Faster, more consistent monitoring: Open-source tools are being introduced to automate the processing and reporting of deforestation alerts, shortening the gap between detection and management decisions.
- Satellite evidence is guiding action: Authorities are using satellite data to update surveillance plans, improve patrol routes and complement satellite monitoring with drone surveillance to target areas under pressure.
- A practical model for other regions: The methods, tools and proposed national guidance offer a scalable approach for other resource-constrained territories facing similar forest-monitoring challenges.
The situation
A vast forest under growing pressure
Peru has one of the world’s largest forest areas. Just over 72 million hectares are forested and around 94 percent of this is Amazon rainforest – an area larger than Switzerland and France combined.
Forest loss has increased significantly. Peru lost an average of 115,000 hectares a year between 1990 and 2000, rising to 172,000 hectares a year between 2010 and 2020. Agricultural expansion is the main driver. Illegal gold mining, illegal logging, illicit crops and new roads also contribute, often in combination.
Why regional conservation areas matter
Peru’s protected natural areas conserve biodiversity and associated cultural, landscape and scientific value. They also support sustainable development. Some are managed nationally by the National Service for Natural Areas Protected by the State (SERNANP), while others are managed by regional governments and are known as Regional Conservation Areas.
Regional Conservation Areas cover 3.6 million hectares, or 2.8 percent of Peru’s territory. They protect ecosystems and species, maintain services such as water regulation, pollination and carbon storage and support the sustainable use of natural resources by local communities.
The gap between detection and response
Satellite imagery is the most scalable way to monitor forest cover across large, remote territories. It enables systematic observation, comparison over time and the generation of near real-time information. Yet regional authorities often lack the systems and capacity to turn this information into timely action. Problems include:
- Skills gaps: Technical teams have limited experience with remote sensing, geographic information systems and satellite-image analysis.
- Fragmented processes: Alert analysis and field verification are often manual, fragmented and poorly integrated.
- Missing baselines: There is no consistent historical baseline against which to assess changes over time.
- Slow response: Reporting is not sufficiently automated or connected to operational decisions.
These constraints delay the response to forest loss and make it harder to direct scarce surveillance resources where they are most needed.
What we did
The Subnational PFM programme developed a practical response centred on local capacity, reliable historical information, accessible technology and the use of evidence in surveillance decisions. The work covers nine Regional Conservation Areas in Cusco, Loreto and San Martín. Together, they span 2.8 million hectares – around 75 percent of the total area of all Regional Conservation Areas in Peru and approximately 4 percent of the Peruvian Amazon.
The table below shows how the programme responds to the main barriers:
| Identified problem | Programme response |
|---|---|
| Limited capacity in geographic information systems and remote sensing, creating reliance on external specialists | Training for regional staff in geographic information systems, remote sensing and satellite-image processing |
| No comparable, systematised historical deforestation baselines | Preparation and validation of historical baselines for analysis and monitoring |
| Manual and fragmented processes for analysing and verifying alerts | Open-source tools to automate processing and generate reports every two weeks |
| Limited use of geospatial evidence to prioritise surveillance and control | Technical support to apply the information in patrol planning and other management decisions |
The impact
Nine validated baselines
For the first time, the nine participating conservation areas have standardised and validated information on changes in forest cover. The baselines identified a cumulative loss of 9,808 hectares. Human-caused deforestation accounted for 49 percent, mainly from agriculture. Natural forest loss accounted for 37 percent and false or previously unverified alerts for 14 percent.
Within the human-caused losses, agriculture accounted for 37 percent of the total, livestock farming for 4 percent, transport for 3 percent and other causes for 5 percent (Basel Institute on Governance, 2025a–c).
More independent regional teams
Training has strengthened the ability of regional teams to generate and interpret geospatial evidence without relying as heavily on external assistance. This helps retain expertise within public institutions and lowers ongoing costs of environmental monitoring.
Faster information for decisions
Automated processing and reporting are improving the timeliness and consistency of information used for environmental surveillance. They also support coordination between regional governments and SERNANP by making it easier to integrate regional evidence with national monitoring systems.
Access to recent, sufficiently detailed satellite imagery remains important. Cooperation with Peru’s Space Agency, CONIDA, offers a sustainable way to access higher-resolution images, improve accuracy and reduce the need for separate purchases.
Evidence guiding patrols
The information is already shaping practical decisions. In Loreto, three of the four participating conservation areas began updating their surveillance and control plans using the new baselines. Across Cusco, Loreto and San Martín, managers are using the evidence to target patrols, optimise routes, complement drone surveillance and focus limited resources on areas facing the greatest pressure.
Making the system part of routine, low-cost forest management
The programme is leaving regional governments with skills, data and tools that can strengthen forest management over the long term. Historical baselines, trained staff and automated alert processing create a practical foundation for more consistent surveillance and evidence- based decisions.
The experience also shows that effective remote monitoring does not always require expensive proprietary systems. Accessible technologies can deliver strong results when they are supported by sound methods, quality assurance and sustained institutional ownership.
Supporting biodiversity and climate goals
Better management of Regional Conservation Areas supports Peru’s national biodiversity goals and contributes to Target 3 of the Kunming–Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, known as the 30x30 target. This calls for at least 30 percent of the world’s land and sea to be effectively conserved by 2030.
Wider context
This work shows what targeted investment in regional government capacity can achieve:
- Stronger institutions: Regional teams are better equipped to monitor deforestation across biodiverse Amazonian territories and act on the evidence.
- Practical knowledge: The programme has produced tested methods for remote monitoring, geospatial analysis and alert management that can be adapted elsewhere.
- Global benefits: Better forest protection supports carbon storage, climate regulation, biodiversity and local livelihoods. The approach can help regional authorities – in Peru and elsewhere – better identify threats to forests and respond with limited resources.
Learning from practice
Interested in learning more in detail about what we did, read case studies, lessons from this project and how they can inform similar work elsewhere?
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